When Julius Caesar stood on the banks of the Rubicon River, he could have added up the number and quality of his forces and compared them to those of Pompey and arrived at any number of predictions. Some of the ways to crunch the numbers seemed in his favor. Others indicated his defeat. But he had to make a decision regardless.
When facing a decision in any context, let alone a crisis, we should remember this quote from Teddy Roosevelt:
"In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing."
People are piling on decision makers such as Mayor De Blasio right now, saying they overreacted to the so-called Blizzard of 2015.
We here in the New York City Metropolitan Area went to sleep last night anticipating an imminent disaster. Now, I'm personally far enough west of the City that I was told to expect 14-16 inches of snow. As of 10 PM last night, the National Weather Service was still predicting for NYC to receive 20-30 inches. On the basis of that information, States of Emergency were declared, schools closed, and travel bans imposed.
I looked out over my driveway this morning and estimated that there were maybe three inches of snow out there.
And as I sipped my coffee, the news confirmed the shift in fortunes. The storm had suddenly and unexpectedly moved eastward and spared NYC the catastrophe that had been earlier predicted.
Social media today is full of Monday Morning Quarterbacks declaring that the reaction was excessive. And they cite the mere fact that the predicted snow did not fall.
People need to remember that the National Weather Service predicted the path and severity of Super Storm Sandy to great accuracy. They, in fact, predict the weather overall with laudable precision. I have no doubt that even as of 10 PM last night, meteorologists at the NWS believed that all the available data indicated much more snow for NYC than ended up falling.
Click to download your free copy of Praying Our Fathers: the Secret Mercies of Ancestral Intercession.
Colin Powell has described his decision making philosophy along what he terms the "40-70" Rule. If you make a decision with less than 40% certainty of being right, you are rash. If you wait to make a decision until you have more than 70% certainty of being right, you are probably going to hesitate too much. No one ever achieved anything significant who waited for 100% certainty before acting.
As of 6 AM this morning, the storm just didn't happen for the NYC area. But if De Blasio had waited until 6 AM this morning to react to this storm, hoping it just didn't happen, he would have been making poor leadership decisions. Even if the storm didn't happen.
Had the NWS predicted 6 inches, only to have 30 fall, people would have been demanding their heads, not just their resignations. In the reverse, we should remember that they did indeed include in their bulletins a line to the effect that "The exact path of the storm remains uncertain and could dramatically affect snow totals." We should all be breathing a sigh of relief that the storm shifted, not criticizing this agency.
Back to Caesar. That day on the Rubicon, he had scattered intelligence about his adversaries. He had maybe 40% of the information he needed to make a decision. But a decision had to be made. He threw the die. He crossed the Rubicon. Did he make the right decision, considering that just five years later he was assassinated?
Yes. He made the right decision. Because he made the decision.
Keith Massey, PhD (University of Wisconsin-Madison). Latin Teacher, Author, Musician, Eastern Orthodox Priest
Showing posts with label rubicon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rubicon. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Julius Caesar Spinoff from Spartacus?
We're still waiting for definitive word on whether the Starz Network will be spinning off a show about Julius Caesar from Spartacus. The casting of Todd Lasance was brilliant. He could certainly pull off a whole series. And the story of Julius Caesar is packed full of adventurous episodes that could easily make three or four seasons of programming.
I include a discussion of Julius Caesar in my
online Udemy course Fortune Favors the Brave. Visit my website for more details.
Julius Caesar is the epitome of Fortuna (Fortune) because he knew that a certain element of luck always exists in life. But Caesar also knew that taking a proactive approach to life would help you increase your chances at success, even though randomness may play an part.
A knowledge of the importance of Fortune/Luck is why, as he was about to cross the Rubicon River, he said the famous words Alea Iacta Est (The Die is Cast). He used a gambling term because, even though life is a game where others may plan unfairly, you can't win if you don't play.
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If you are moved by stories of heroes fighting against oppressive tyranny, check out the novel A Place of Brightness, the first installment of the Andrew Valquist Saga. You'll share the triumphs and trials of a family of freedom fighters all the way from Cold War Romania down to the present day.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Fortune Favors the Brave - Fortes Fortuna Adiuvat
You’ve heard it said that those who do
not know history are doomed to repeat it. But the pages of history are also full
of stories of success and achievement well worth imitating and repeating. And
in my studies, I’ve noticed some common denominators among stories of success.
We can uncover what makes for success by exploring the famous quote Fortes Fortuna Adiuvat “Fortune Favors
the Brave.”[1]
We can achieve our own measure and definition of success by learning from these
lessons and lives of the past.
It
is January 10th, 49 B.C. Julius Caesar squints as the golden sun peeks from the
horizon. The frosted grass crunches under his feet as he steps toward the bank
of a small river known as the Rubicon.
His
mind races through all that had brought him to this moment. A year imprisoned
by pirates. Climbing the social ladder in Rome. Office by office, rising to
become consul of the Roman Republic. And then, governor of southern Gaul. Now
his mind recalls the wars. So much bloodshed as he had extended Rome’s glory
and domain to include all of the new province of Gaul.
Now
jealous enemies had recalled him to Rome. And they will kill him upon his
return. This lazy river makes up the border between Gaul and the Roman Republic
itself. Caesar turns and sees his legions busying themselves with preparations
to cross at his command. They all know what crossing the river would mean. The
governor is forbidden to take his legions out of Gaul. This would be nothing
short of Civil War. But these men would follow him to the ends of the earth. He
had earned their love and loyalty by fighting right alongside them and eating
the same coarse food as they.
He
looks back at the river and sighs. So much death would come from this. But Rome
was broken. And he believes that only he can fix it.
The
general jumps upon his horse and snaps the reigns. “The die is cast,” he says
aloud, smiling sadly.
Alea Iacta Est
- “The die is cast.”
Julius Caesar used a gambling term to
describe the most important decision of his life. Experience had taught him
that life is a game in which luck plays a significant part. He had faced a
hundred moments that could have easily been his end. However much his skills
helped him avoid demise, in many cases he had simply gotten lucky.
But the great man knew that it was the
skills and qualities he had cultivated in his life that brought him to that
moment. While life can be random, it was his talents that let him throw the
dice that day.
Fortune would indeed favor Julius Caesar.
Regardless of the fact that his life would end in assassination, he changed
history forever. Let’s break down how he made fortune favor him so effectively.
We’ll follow English word order.
Fortune
(Fortuna)
The English word “fortune” has come to
mean monetary wealth, as in, “That’s worth a fortune!” But the Latin original
meant “chance” and “luck,” before the word denoted riches.
It’s an acknowledgement that sheer luck
will always be a factor in life. Now, I don’t mean to say that life is chaotic.
While the world is full of cases where good people suffer and bad people
prosper, it’s also mostly a place where certain skills and qualities do tend to
get you ahead. And that’s the point of the next two words in the title.
Favors
(Adiuvat)
To say that Fortune favors something is an admission that Fortune makes no guarantees.
But I would rather be favored by Fortune than not! And the most important key
to success lies in the final piece of the puzzle. Fortune does not just favor
anyone. Instead, Fortune favors...
The
Brave (Fortes)
The bravery or daring that brings Fortune’s
favor is nothing short of that ultimate proactivity when you claim full
responsibility for your life and its outcome.
But being brave does not always mean
acting rashly and committing all your resources to some pressing endeavor.
Case in point. When the Carthaginian
general Hannibal was pouring into Italy with his men, Rome did not have an army
truly equipped to face this formidable enemy. Fabius Maximus slowed Hannibal
down by keeping his army just shy of Hannibal’s and destroying any grain
Hannibal might use to supply his forces.[2]
Now, if Fabius Maximus had engaged Hannibal in open battle, the Romans would
have been slaughtered. And the Senate criticized Maximus for not facing the
enemy. They made fun of him, calling him “the delayer” (cunctator).
People soon understood that this tactic
had saved Rome. The historian Ennius wrote that “One man, by delaying, saved
the Republic.”
Fabius Maximus was brave by refusing to
face Hannibal in open battle. The easier course, in his culture, would have
been to avoid the insults and charge recklessly into certain death.
But time and time again, history shows
that people who take control and responsibility for their own lives tend to get
ahead. Are there exceptions? Of course there are. But exceptions in this case
prove the rule. Knowing this simple fact is the first step toward owning your
life and increasing your chance to achieve whatever, for you, is success.
Stories
of Success and Virtue
Somehow stories about people are more
powerful than mere slogans about life.
There is a story passed down in my
family. My paternal grandfather, born in 1912, was a mere toddler when he
jumped up on a wagon hitched to team of horses. The dear boy only wanted to
help his father with the chores. He managed to whip the reins and the confused
horses began to run. They charged toward a valley just on the other side of the
main barn. Now, it falls down precipitously there. As I’ve looked at it, I’m
amazed my grandfather wasn’t killed. But just as the team tumbled over the
edge, my grandfather jumped off. The wagon and the hitched horses fell end over
end down into the valley, killing the animals.
My great-grandfather, a man who held me
as an infant but whom I never knew, came running. He picked up his son and said
to him, “Are you alright?”
To understand why even typing these words
brings tears to my eyes, you need to realize that that team of horses was a
loss of what today would equal thousands of dollars. But my great-grandfather
cared nothing about money in that instant. His precious son was safe.
I recently stumbled upon an anecdote in
the Analects of Confucius:
“The stable being burned down, when he
was at court, on his return he said, “Has any man been hurt?” He did not ask
about the horses.”[3]
I was struck by how this simple story,
the virtual equivalent of what is passed down in my family, is somehow so much
more powerful than merely telling people a principle. I mean, I could tell you,
“Value people more than property.” But grounding that virtue in a story is more
meaningful.
So what does it mean that “Fortune Favors
the Brave”? It means that those who own their lives and live them proactively
will tend to succeed more than those who passively wait for whatever will
happen next. And there is no magic formula for success. Only you can find for
yourself that cultivated combination of qualities and skills--virtues--that
will optimize you chance for success in your particular situation.
But there are two important ways in which
learning the stories of success from the past will help you in your specific
situation today.
Eternal
Ideas
First of all, you may derive actual ideas
from the successes of the past that you can apply directly to your needs.
An example comes from the story of the
Athenian Demosthenes.[4] He had lost
his family’s inheritance and was unable to speak well enough in public to make
a convincing legal challenge against those who had wronged him. And so,
regardless of how unfair the situation was, he embarked on a plan to train
himself in the art of speaking. He had two main problems, unclear speech and a
weak cardiovascular system that left him winded after just a sentence or two.
He started to practice speaking with small pebbles in his mouth. This forced
him to be very careful with his pronunciation. The result was that when he had
mastered speaking with that impediment, his normal speech was dramatically
improved. He also practiced speaking while running up and down steep areas.
Now, I’d love to tell you that as a result of all this work he got back his
whole inheritance. But that’s not how it happened. He won his appeal but did
not receive the property. He did, however, develop an ability to speak that
would eventually catapult him into Athenian politics and great recognition. He
also, interestingly, become one of the best long distance runners Athens had
and became a noted and successful participant in the various athletic
competitions such as the Olympiad.
What we can take away from the story of
Demosthenes is that mastery of a skill may be achieved by practicing it under
less than ideal circumstances. In my language studies, I have found, trying to
apply the Demosthenes method, that reading a passage with the page turned
upside down forces me to concentrate such that I actually can study for longer
stretches of time. If this sounds crazy to you, so does putting pebbles in your
mouth and running up and down hills. But it worked for Demosthenes. And it
worked well enough for me that I was able to serve as an Arabic linguist at the
Top Secret National Security Agency.
Inspiration
Perhaps the most important result of
learning the stories of past success is that it is an inspiration that can
strengthen us as we face the trials and tribulations of our own lives. But this
inspiration is more than merely an encouragement.
The ancient Romans spoke of each person
possessing a genius, or internal
spark of the divine. This word and the related term ingenium meant the same as our English words genius or talent.
Seneca describes how all this relates to
success when he writes that:
“No age is closed to great geniuses.”[5]
But Cicero teaches us that working hard
is more important than natural talents:
“Constant practice applied to one thing
often beats out both genius and natural talent.”[6]
When we learn the lives of those who were
endowed with a genius for finding success or who compensated for a lack of
talent by arduous practice, we can, as it were, catch a bit of their spark and
make it our own. Inspired by their example, we can find the strength to do what
we know must be done, even when we find our energy to do it lagging.
So what is it that you need to do in
order to find your definition of success?
That is for you to discover for yourself.
But the good news is that you are not alone. You have companions who have
walked on this journey of self-discovery as well. Meeting them will help you
find the answer for yourself.
[1] The quote exists in a number of forms. The first
use of the quote I use above appears in Terence, Phormio: 204. Vergil gives us a variant quote, audaces Fortuna iuvat, “Fortune favors the bold.” (Aeneid 10:284,
textual variant).
[2]
Plutarch, Fabius.
[3]
Confucius, Analects
10.11
[4] Plutarch, Demosthenes 11
[5] nullum saeculum magnis ingeniis clausum est.
Epistolae 102.
[6] assiduus usus uni rei deditus et ingenium et
artem saepe vincit. Pro L. Cornelio
Balbo Oratio Ad Iudices, XX.45.
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